{
  "frozen_at": "2026-07-18T23:46:57.951556+00:00",
  "git_sha": "f93f4b5578c221d3d2665f9b305f3e86759be862+dirty",
  "spec": {
    "analysis": "campaign.metaledger.analyze",
    "hypotheses": [
      {
        "id": "H-brier",
        "prediction": {
          "ci_excludes": null,
          "comparator": "<",
          "effect": null,
          "metric": "brier_directional",
          "threshold": 0.25
        },
        "scoreboard_row": null,
        "statement": "the campaign's directional predictions, each assigned a pre-run probability, beat a coin"
      },
      {
        "id": "H-coverage",
        "prediction": {
          "ci_excludes": null,
          "comparator": ">=",
          "effect": 0.8,
          "metric": "interval_coverage_0p8",
          "threshold": 0.6
        },
        "scoreboard_row": null,
        "statement": "the nominal-0.8 prediction intervals cover the observed values near their nominal rate"
      }
    ],
    "id": "campaign-meta-ledger",
    "kill_criteria": [
      {
        "comparator": ">=",
        "id": "K-meta",
        "metric": "brier_directional",
        "threshold": 0.25
      }
    ],
    "science": "S00-meta",
    "subjects": {
      "datasets": [],
      "extra": {},
      "organisms": [],
      "signals": []
    },
    "title": "The campaign scores its own calibration",
    "version": 1
  },
  "spec_hash": "spec:b8659763ad1e9bf0ca0fa9a1c98fc29b",
  "study_id": "study:campaign-meta-ledger@v1#b8659763"
}