CAPACITY-WELCH S5 · Capacity theory of bias

Dark reward tracks the criteria-to-dimension ratio; ArmoRM respects the Welch floor

Mixed

frozen 2026-07-18 · adjudicated 2026-07-19 · ev:f9e6a003a5a1e0aa0fe3ff1eca0d9c7b · spec:9fc6a4346dcd4

The frozen predictions

  1. H-dark-kdeff dark reward grows with the criteria-to-effective-dimension ratio
    dark_reward_kdeff_spearman > 0.6 registered p 0.5 dark_reward_kdeff_spearman Value -0.4061811972299616 Subject CAPACITY-WELCH Threshold > 0.6 Trust Adjudicated Evidence ev:f9e6a003a5a1e0aa0fe3ff1eca0d9c7b Refuted
  2. H-capacity-perm the fleet correlation clears its permutation null
    capacity_perm_p < 0.05 capacity_perm_p Value 0.8934106589341065 Subject CAPACITY-WELCH Threshold < 0.05 Trust Adjudicated Evidence ev:f9e6a003a5a1e0aa0fe3ff1eca0d9c7b Refuted
  3. H-welch the ArmoRM 19-head coherence matrix respects the Welch floor
    welch_floor_min_slack >= 0 welch_floor_min_slack Value 0.8163979052568419 Subject CAPACITY-WELCH Threshold >= 0 Trust Adjudicated Evidence ev:f9e6a003a5a1e0aa0fe3ff1eca0d9c7b Confirmed
Adjudication figure for CAPACITY-WELCH
CAPACITY-WELCH against its frozen predictions: mixed.

Subjects and artifacts