HUMP S3 · Reward thermodynamics

The Goodhart hump located from a base-policy tail index

Inconclusive

frozen 2026-07-18 · adjudicated 2026-07-19 · ev:02a1669641150750737afc8291255bf9 · spec:ec094a501eddd

The frozen predictions

  1. H-hump-exists an interior gold-reward hump exists in the proxy/gold best-of-n arm
    hump_interior_present == 1 registered p 0.55 not measured Inconclusive
  2. H-hump-loc the tail-predicted hump location matches the observed one within 0.5 nats
    hump_kl_abs_error < 0.5 interval prediction not measured Inconclusive
Adjudication figure for HUMP
HUMP was not adjudicated this run: missing intermediate: no intermediate 'campaign.recorder.drift' for roster_key='policy-qwen25-1.5b' slice='hump-prompts'; the arc that produces it has not run or its shard was not merged.

Subjects and artifacts