CHI-DRIFT S3 · Reward thermodynamics
Susceptibility chi predicts best-of-n feature drift on a real bank
Confirmed
frozen 2026-07-18 · adjudicated 2026-07-19 · ev:c978e3958769ecf93dcf079771a3aedb · spec:1c12042d2eeb9
The frozen predictions
- H-chi-bon chi predicts realized best-of-n feature-drift ordering on a real bank
chi_bon_spearman > 0.3registered p 0.6 chi_bon_spearman Value 0.9642857142857145 Subject CHI-DRIFT Threshold > 0.3 Trust Adjudicated Evidenceev:c978e3958769ecf93dcf079771a3aedbConfirmed - H-chi-beats-var chi beats a base-variance-only baseline
chi_minus_variance_baseline_spearman > 0chi_minus_variance_baseline_spearman Value 0.5714285714285714 Subject CHI-DRIFT Threshold > 0 Trust Adjudicated Evidenceev:c978e3958769ecf93dcf079771a3aedbConfirmed
Registered companions
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chi_bon_spearman_ci_lowchi_bon_spearman_ci_low Value 0.7500000000000002 Subject CHI-DRIFT Trust Adjudicated Evidenceev:c978e3958769ecf93dcf079771a3aedb -
chi_bon_spearman_ci_highchi_bon_spearman_ci_high Subject CHI-DRIFT Trust Adjudicated Evidenceev:c978e3958769ecf93dcf079771a3aedb -
chi_bon_spearman_second_modelchi_bon_spearman_second_model Subject CHI-DRIFT Trust Adjudicated Evidenceev:c978e3958769ecf93dcf079771a3aedb -
chi_minus_variance_baseline_spearman_ci_lowchi_minus_variance_baseline_spearman_ci_low Value 0.07142857142857151 Subject CHI-DRIFT Trust Adjudicated Evidenceev:c978e3958769ecf93dcf079771a3aedb -
chi_minus_variance_baseline_spearman_ci_highchi_minus_variance_baseline_spearman_ci_high Value 0.5714285714285716 Subject CHI-DRIFT Trust Adjudicated Evidenceev:c978e3958769ecf93dcf079771a3aedb
