Evidence records

Tail index forecasts the best-of-k plateau on PPE

Store key campaign.adjudication.PPE-BON

The reading

  • H-tail-plateau inconclusive
  • H-lowerquantile inconclusive

registered

card
PPE-BON
status
inconclusive
reason
missing intermediate: no intermediate 'campaign.scores' for roster_key='skywork-v2-qwen3-8b' slice='ppe-best-of-k::gpqa'; the arc that produces it has not run or its shard was not merged
killed
false
staged_violation
false
pre_freeze_violation
false

Uncertainty

ci_low
not measured
ci_high
not measured
ci_level
not measured
n
not measured
n_effective
not measured
seed_spread
not measured
method
none

Subject

card
PPE-BON
spec
campaign-ppe-bon
signals
not measured
dataset
not measured
readout
not measured
frame
not measured
interventions
not measured
gauge
invariant
calibration
not measured
observable_version
1.0
trust
registered

Measurements

metrics

No rows returned.

thresholds

H-tail-plateau
0.3
H-lowerquantile
1

comparators

H-tail-plateau
>
H-lowerquantile
==

kill_thresholds

K-ppe
0

kill_comparators

K-ppe
<=

killed_by

No rows returned.

overlay_notes

No rows returned.

Provenance

git_sha
f93f4b5578c221d3d2665f9b305f3e86759be862+dirty
study
study:campaign-ppe-bon@v1#7077cf84
config_hash
not measured
gpu_seconds
0
tokens
0
wall_seconds
0
gpu
cpu
arc
reporting
seeds
not measured
oracle_calls
not measured
created_at
parents, Derived from
not measured

Rendered on

ev:5cd71da5713f2b2fb77697318b842401