Trajectory forensics and the economics of grading
Skepticism and receipt reliance predict who rewards fabricated receipts
refuted registered
The reading
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the two group contrasts separate graders as their planted values would
reliance_recovery > 0.5 0.6 Skepticism and receipt reliance predict who rewards fabricated receipts refuted registered > 0.5 The frozen study "Skepticism and receipt reliance predict who rewards fabricated receipts", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on fleet-subset, over receipt-triples-1600. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. fraction of positive grader contrasts at n = 5 graders: the frozen 0.5 sits at the null center, the point call passes under the null 0.51 of the time, and 80 percent confirmation needs per-grader positive-contrast probability 0.67, the s15-plant regime (calibration 0.993). Open the record › refuted
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the omission-credulity gap is real on constructed triples
omission_credulity_gap > 0.2 Skepticism and receipt reliance predict who rewards fabricated receipts refuted registered > 0.2 The frozen study "Skepticism and receipt reliance predict who rewards fabricated receipts", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on fleet-subset, over receipt-triples-1600. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. fraction of positive grader contrasts at n = 5 graders: the frozen 0.5 sits at the null center, the point call passes under the null 0.51 of the time, and 80 percent confirmation needs per-grader positive-contrast probability 0.67, the s15-plant regime (calibration 0.993). Open the record › refuted
the disclosure-game framing adds nothing over raw reliance; the shipped S15 kill
skepticism_effect < 0.1 Skepticism and receipt reliance predict who rewards fabricated receipts refuted registered < 0.1 The frozen study "Skepticism and receipt reliance predict who rewards fabricated receipts", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on fleet-subset, over receipt-triples-1600. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. fraction of positive grader contrasts at n = 5 graders: the frozen 0.5 sits at the null center, the point call passes under the null 0.51 of the time, and 80 percent confirmation needs per-grader positive-contrast probability 0.67, the s15-plant regime (calibration 0.993). Open the record ›
Measurements
- skepticism_effect
- Skepticism and receipt reliance predict who rewards fabricated receipts refuted registered < 0.1 The frozen study "Skepticism and receipt reliance predict who rewards fabricated receipts", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on fleet-subset, over receipt-triples-1600. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. fraction of positive grader contrasts at n = 5 graders: the frozen 0.5 sits at the null center, the point call passes under the null 0.51 of the time, and 80 percent confirmation needs per-grader positive-contrast probability 0.67, the s15-plant regime (calibration 0.993). Open the record ›
Provenance
- card
- FORENSIC-RECEIPT
- frozen_at
- adjudicated_at
- spec_hash
- spec:e0aa318bf24297c18530a2ad9c805bf3
- study_id
- study:campaign-forensic-receipt@v1#e0aa318b
- Evidence records
- 426a8cbed7f6d6dfb61d8fe3ed5264a4
- power_acceptance
- fraction of positive grader contrasts at n = 5 graders: the frozen 0.5 sits at the null center, the point call passes under the null 0.51 of the time, and 80 percent confirmation needs per-grader positive-contrast probability 0.67, the s15-plant regime (calibration 0.993)
- spec_file
- campaign-forensic-receipt.json