Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation

The reading

1. at least 2 of 3 capture-only internal quantities land in their pre-frozen 8B intervals

   ladder_8b_metrics_in_interval >= 2 0.65 3 Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation mixed registered >= 2 The frozen study "Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on skywork-v2-qwen3-0.6b and skywork-v2-qwen3-1.7b and skywork-v2-qwen3-4b and skywork-v2-qwen3-8b, over rb2-full. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Open the record › Copy technical provenance confirmed

2. the extrapolation beats a no-trend (equal-to-4B) baseline

   ladder_extrap_minus_flat_error < 0 0.6002 Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation mixed registered confidence interval -0.5311824800459731 to 2.4359016583798008 < 0 The frozen study "Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on skywork-v2-qwen3-0.6b and skywork-v2-qwen3-1.7b and skywork-v2-qwen3-4b and skywork-v2-qwen3-8b, over rb2-full. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Open the record › Copy technical provenance refuted

Measurements

ladder_extrap_minus_flat_error_ci_low

-0.5312 Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation mixed registered confidence interval -0.5311824800459731 to 2.4359016583798008 < 0 The frozen study "Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on skywork-v2-qwen3-0.6b and skywork-v2-qwen3-1.7b and skywork-v2-qwen3-4b and skywork-v2-qwen3-8b, over rb2-full. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Open the record › Copy technical provenance

ladder_extrap_minus_flat_error_ci_high

2.436 Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation mixed registered confidence interval -0.5311824800459731 to 2.4359016583798008 < 0 The frozen study "Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on skywork-v2-qwen3-0.6b and skywork-v2-qwen3-1.7b and skywork-v2-qwen3-4b and skywork-v2-qwen3-8b, over rb2-full. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Open the record › Copy technical provenance

ladder_8b_crystallization_in_interval

1 Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation mixed registered none registered The frozen study "Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on skywork-v2-qwen3-0.6b and skywork-v2-qwen3-1.7b and skywork-v2-qwen3-4b and skywork-v2-qwen3-8b, over rb2-full. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Nothing was registered against this value in advance, so it is a supporting measurement rather than a tested one. Open the record › Copy technical provenance

ladder_8b_chi_teacher_in_interval

1 Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation mixed registered none registered The frozen study "Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on skywork-v2-qwen3-0.6b and skywork-v2-qwen3-1.7b and skywork-v2-qwen3-4b and skywork-v2-qwen3-8b, over rb2-full. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Nothing was registered against this value in advance, so it is a supporting measurement rather than a tested one. Open the record › Copy technical provenance

ladder_8b_snr_in_interval

1 Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation mixed registered none registered The frozen study "Same-recipe scale ladder with frozen 8B extrapolation", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on skywork-v2-qwen3-0.6b and skywork-v2-qwen3-1.7b and skywork-v2-qwen3-4b and skywork-v2-qwen3-8b, over rb2-full. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Nothing was registered against this value in advance, so it is a supporting measurement rather than a tested one. Open the record › Copy technical provenance

Provenance

card

LADDER

frozen_at

2026-07-18

adjudicated_at

2026-07-19

spec_hash

spec:0023527a360de5b616a0aa5a7bb6c3cf

study_id

study:campaign-ladder@v1#0023527a

Evidence records

d746d48eef7a5630cecbd3e97a9d9cb8

spec_file

campaign-ladder.json