META-LEDGER ·

The campaign scores its own calibration

Refuted K-meta fired

frozen 2026-07-18 · adjudicated 2026-07-19 · ev:3990df7af1488c08ad62786d879b0b0f · spec:b8659763ad1e9

The frozen predictions

  1. H-brier the campaign's directional predictions, each assigned a pre-run probability, beat a coin
    brier_directional < 0.25 brier_directional Subject META-LEDGER Threshold < 0.25 Trust Adjudicated Evidence ev:3990df7af1488c08ad62786d879b0b0f Refuted
  2. H-coverage the nominal-0.8 prediction intervals cover the observed values near their nominal rate
    interval_coverage_0p8 >= 0.6 interval_coverage_0p8 Subject META-LEDGER Threshold >= 0.6 Trust Adjudicated Evidence ev:3990df7af1488c08ad62786d879b0b0f Confirmed

K-meta fired on brier_directional >= 0.25 , observed 0.26 : the campaign's directional calls do not beat a coin; the discipline does not calibrate itself. A fired kill criterion is a registered negative result, not a failure of the machinery.

Adjudication figure for META-LEDGER
META-LEDGER fired its kill criterion (K-meta); the registered negative result.

Registered companions

Subjects and artifacts