evidence record

campaign.adjudication.FORECAST-CAT

Adjudication record for FORECAST-CAT, from the merged campaign store, shown whole.

ev:1acdc14e2fa16124786a9cd0d44a03b2 · the FORECAST-CAT card · all shipped records

{
 "id": "ev:1acdc14e2fa16124786a9cd0d44a03b2",
 "observable": "campaign.adjudication.FORECAST-CAT",
 "observable_version": "1.0",
 "subject": {
  "signals": [],
  "dataset": null,
  "readout": null,
  "frame": null,
  "interventions": [],
  "extra": {
   "card": "FORECAST-CAT",
   "spec": "campaign-forecast-cat"
  }
 },
 "value": {
  "__map__": {
   "card": "FORECAST-CAT",
   "status": "adjudicated",
   "reason": "",
   "outcomes": {
    "__map__": {
     "H-forecast-mae": "refuted",
     "H-forecast-beats-size": "confirmed"
    }
   },
   "metrics": {
    "__map__": {
     "forecast_mae": 0.08695840679817465,
     "forecast_mae_minus_size_baseline": -0.10242024172821523,
     "forecast_mae_minus_size_baseline_ci_low": -0.11965441047419614,
     "forecast_mae_minus_size_baseline_ci_high": -0.07469374333560999,
     "size_baseline_mae": 0.1893786485263899,
     "slice_baseline_mae": 0.17701517365910444
    }
   },
   "thresholds": {
    "__map__": {
     "H-forecast-mae": 0.06,
     "H-forecast-beats-size": 0
    }
   },
   "comparators": {
    "__map__": {
     "H-forecast-mae": "<",
     "H-forecast-beats-size": "<"
    }
   },
   "kill_thresholds": {
    "__map__": {
     "K-forecast": 0
    }
   },
   "kill_comparators": {
    "__map__": {
     "K-forecast": ">="
    }
   },
   "killed": false,
   "killed_by": {
    "__seq__": []
   },
   "overlay_notes": {
    "__seq__": []
   },
   "staged_violation": false,
   "pre_freeze_violation": false
  }
 },
 "uncertainty": {
  "ci_low": null,
  "ci_high": null,
  "ci_level": null,
  "n": null,
  "n_effective": null,
  "seed_spread": null,
  "method": "none"
 },
 "gauge": "invariant",
 "calibration": null,
 "trust": 2,
 "provenance": {
  "git_sha": "f93f4b5578c221d3d2665f9b305f3e86759be862+dirty",
  "config_hash": null,
  "seeds": [],
  "cost": {
   "gpu_seconds": 0,
   "tokens": 0,
   "wall_seconds": 0
  },
  "oracle_calls": [],
  "parents": [
   "ev:8b8a7f42976f220d66f185154a639ed4"
  ],
  "study": "study:campaign-forecast-cat@v1#39a99a5a",
  "extra": {
   "gpu": "cpu",
   "arc": "reporting"
  }
 },
 "created_at": "2026-07-19T18:16:08.710664+00:00"
}