Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice

The reading

1. internals plus a 200-pair slice forecast per-category RB2 accuracy within 0.06 MAE

   forecast_mae < 0.06 0.55 0.08696 Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice mixed registered < 0.06 The frozen study "Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on fleet, over rb2-full and rb2-calibration-200. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. P(observed MAE beats the no-skill null's 5 percent boundary 0.048 | true MAE at the frozen 0.06), 6 categories; a no-skill forecast passes the frozen bound itself 0.100 of the time, and true MAEs at or below 0.038 detect at 80 percent. Open the record › Copy technical provenance refuted

2. the forecast beats predict-from-size

   forecast_mae_minus_size_baseline < 0 -0.1024 Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice mixed registered confidence interval -0.11965441047419614 to -0.07469374333560999 < 0 The frozen study "Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on fleet, over rb2-full and rb2-calibration-200. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. P(observed MAE beats the no-skill null's 5 percent boundary 0.048 | true MAE at the frozen 0.06), 6 categories; a no-skill forecast passes the frozen bound itself 0.100 of the time, and true MAEs at or below 0.038 detect at 80 percent. Open the record › Copy technical provenance confirmed

Measurements

forecast_mae_minus_size_baseline_ci_low

-0.1197 Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice mixed registered confidence interval -0.11965441047419614 to -0.07469374333560999 < 0 The frozen study "Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on fleet, over rb2-full and rb2-calibration-200. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. P(observed MAE beats the no-skill null's 5 percent boundary 0.048 | true MAE at the frozen 0.06), 6 categories; a no-skill forecast passes the frozen bound itself 0.100 of the time, and true MAEs at or below 0.038 detect at 80 percent. Open the record › Copy technical provenance

forecast_mae_minus_size_baseline_ci_high

-0.07469 Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice mixed registered confidence interval -0.11965441047419614 to -0.07469374333560999 < 0 The frozen study "Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on fleet, over rb2-full and rb2-calibration-200. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. P(observed MAE beats the no-skill null's 5 percent boundary 0.048 | true MAE at the frozen 0.06), 6 categories; a no-skill forecast passes the frozen bound itself 0.100 of the time, and true MAEs at or below 0.038 detect at 80 percent. Open the record › Copy technical provenance

size_baseline_mae

0.1894 Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice mixed registered none registered The frozen study "Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on fleet, over rb2-full and rb2-calibration-200. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Nothing was registered against this value in advance, so it is a supporting measurement rather than a tested one. P(observed MAE beats the no-skill null's 5 percent boundary 0.048 | true MAE at the frozen 0.06), 6 categories; a no-skill forecast passes the frozen bound itself 0.100 of the time, and true MAEs at or below 0.038 detect at 80 percent. Open the record › Copy technical provenance

slice_baseline_mae

0.177 Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice mixed registered none registered The frozen study "Benchmark forecasting from internals plus a 200-pair slice", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on fleet, over rb2-full and rb2-calibration-200. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Nothing was registered against this value in advance, so it is a supporting measurement rather than a tested one. P(observed MAE beats the no-skill null's 5 percent boundary 0.048 | true MAE at the frozen 0.06), 6 categories; a no-skill forecast passes the frozen bound itself 0.100 of the time, and true MAEs at or below 0.038 detect at 80 percent. Open the record › Copy technical provenance

Provenance

card

FORECAST-CAT

frozen_at

2026-07-18

adjudicated_at

2026-07-19

spec_hash

spec:39a99a5ab61d6f8e744a40b3804d21ab

study_id

study:campaign-forecast-cat@v1#39a99a5a

Evidence records

1acdc14e2fa16124786a9cd0d44a03b2

power_acceptance

P(observed MAE beats the no-skill null's 5 percent boundary 0.048 | true MAE at the frozen 0.06), 6 categories; a no-skill forecast passes the frozen bound itself 0.100 of the time, and true MAEs at or below 0.038 detect at 80 percent

spec_file

campaign-forecast-cat.json