The campaign scores its own calibration

The reading

1. the campaign's directional predictions, each assigned a pre-run probability, beat a coin

   brier_directional < 0.25 0.26 The campaign scores its own calibration refuted registered < 0.25 The frozen study "The campaign scores its own calibration", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on the campaign's own record, rather than a model or a dataset. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Open the record › Copy technical provenance refuted

2. the nominal-0.8 prediction intervals cover the observed values near their nominal rate

   interval_coverage_0p8 >= 0.6 0.75 The campaign scores its own calibration refuted registered >= 0.6 The frozen study "The campaign scores its own calibration", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on the campaign's own record, rather than a model or a dataset. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Open the record › Copy technical provenance confirmed

the campaign's directional calls do not beat a coin; the discipline does not calibrate itself

brier_directional >= 0.25 0.26 The campaign scores its own calibration refuted registered < 0.25 The frozen study "The campaign scores its own calibration", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on the campaign's own record, rather than a model or a dataset. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Open the record › Copy technical provenance

Measurements

n_directional

16 The campaign scores its own calibration refuted registered none registered The frozen study "The campaign scores its own calibration", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on the campaign's own record, rather than a model or a dataset. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Nothing was registered against this value in advance, so it is a supporting measurement rather than a tested one. Open the record › Copy technical provenance

n_intervals

4 The campaign scores its own calibration refuted registered none registered The frozen study "The campaign scores its own calibration", adjudicated on 19 July 2026 at the registered level of the project's evidence ladder. One frozen study, adjudicated once, on the campaign's own record, rather than a model or a dataset. It does not establish that the same holds on another subject, another dataset or another run. Nothing was registered against this value in advance, so it is a supporting measurement rather than a tested one. Open the record › Copy technical provenance

Provenance

card

META-LEDGER

frozen_at

2026-07-18

adjudicated_at

2026-07-19

spec_hash

spec:b8659763ad1e9bf0ca0fa9a1c98fc29b

study_id

study:campaign-meta-ledger@v1#b8659763

Evidence records

3990df7af1488c08ad62786d879b0b0f

spec_file

campaign-meta-ledger.json